Why Career Planning Is Time Wasted
Our culture worships planning. Everything must be planned in advance. Our days, week, years, our entire lives. We have diaries, schedules, checklists, targets, goals, aims, strategies, visions even. Career planning is the most insidious of these cults precisely because it encourages a feeling of control over your reactions to future events. As that interview question goes: where do you see yourself in five years time? This invites the beginning of what starts as a little game and finishes as a belief built on sand. You guess what employers want to hear, and then you give it to them. Sometimes this batting back and forth of imagined futures becomes a necessary little game you play in order to ‘get ahead’.
“We want to make a decision all of our own, based on our own values and preferences.”
In reality, people frequently don’t know what they want and psychology has proved it. That’s why career planning, or at the very least just deciding what you’re going to do next, is so unpleasant. It’s no fun at 18 years old when people ask what you want to do. There seem to be so many different options, each with myriad branching possibilities, many of which lead in opposite directions, but all equally tempting. Surrounded by these endless spiralling futures, it is no wonder that many a school-leaver sticks with what they know and follows in parental footsteps. But we don’t all want to trust the tried and tested, whether for good reasons or bad. We want to make a decision all of our own, based on our own values and preferences.
Midlife crisis
If it’s hard at 18, it’s even harder in midlife when people are theoretically better equipped to make their choice. In reality by your 30s wide-eyed optimism has normally been replaced by a more cynical outlook on jobs and the workplace. Now it’s more clear what the downsides of certain jobs are. There’s not only our own experiences of work but we also have friends at work, all of whom colour our perception of their careers.
Everyone has their own internal trade-offs. How much routine do you like: boring but safe)? How much do you like travel: exciting but you’ll be away from loved ones? How much do you care about earning more money: and taking a more boring/stressful/less fulfilling job? Whatever the outcome of all these swings and roundabouts along with many more, the reason that deciding what to do with your life is so difficult is that it involves predicting the future.
There’s many reasons why it seems we should be good at prediction what we want. If I know that I’m enjoying what I’m doing now, then I should enjoy it in the future shouldn’t I? On top of this I’ve got years of experience building up a set of things I like – cinema, books, sitcoms – and things I don’t like – trips to the dentist, severe embarrassment and flu, especially not all at the same time. If I’ve got this huge bank of likes and dislikes it should be easy to predict my wants in the future. And yet, it seems we are often surprised by what the future throws at us.
Miswanting
“We are poor at predicting what will make us happy in the future.”
The idea of making mistakes about what we might want in the future has been termed ‘miswanting’ by Gilbert and Wilson (2000). They point to a range of studies finding we are poor at predicting what will make us happy in the future. My favourite is a simple experiment in which two groups of participants get free sandwiches if they participate in the experiment – a doozie for any undergraduate.
One group has to choose which sandwiches they want for an entire week in advance. The other group gets to choose which they want each day. A fascinating thing happens. People who choose their favourite sandwich each day at lunchtime also often choose the same sandwich. This group turns out to be reasonably happy with its choice.
Amazingly, though, people choosing in advance assume that what they’ll want for lunch next week is a variety. And so they choose a turkey sandwich Monday, tuna on Tuesday, egg on Wednesday and so on. It turn out that when next week rolls around they generally don’t like the variety they thought they would. In fact they are significantly less happy with their choices than the group who chose their sandwiches on the day.
Prediction failure
This variety versus sameness is only one particular bias that people display in making predictions about their future emotional states. There is another counter-intuitive bias emerging from the work being done in positive psychology. This looks at how people predict they will feel after both catastrophically bad, and, conversely, fantastically positive occurrences in their life. For example, how good would you feel if you won the lottery? Most people predict their lives will be completely changed and they’ll be much happier. What does the research find? Yes, people are measurably happier after they’ve just won, but six months down the line they’re back to their individual ‘baseline’ level of happiness.
So, in the journey from the sublime – predicting how we’ll feel about winning the lottery – to the ridiculous – predicting which sandwiches we’ll want for lunch – we are incredibly bad at knowing our future selves. And if we can’t even decide what type of sandwich we might like next week, how can we possibly decide what type of job we’d like to be doing in twenty years?
With age occasionally comes wisdom. Over time we learn, whether implicitly or explicitly, that we are not that good at predicting the future. At the very least we begin to recognise it is a much less precise science than we once thought.
A stranger future
This means your future self is probably a stranger to you. And, on some level, you know it. That’s why it might be hard for an 18 year old to choose their career, but it’s a damn sight harder for someone in midlife when limitations have been learnt.
“People begin to understand that the future holds vanishingly few certainties…”
This might seem like just another way of saying that people get more cautious as they get older, but it is more than that. It’s actually saying that it’s not caution that’s increasing with age, but implicit self-knowledge. People begin to understand that the future holds vanishingly few certainties, even for those things that would seem to be under our most direct control, like our sandwich preferences.
Best guess beats careful planning
The argument about miswanting applies to any area of our lives which involves making a prediction about what we might like in the future. Career planning becomes painful precisely because it’s such an important decision and we come to understand that we have only very limited useful information.
The best strategy for career planning is this: make your best guess, try it out and don’t be surprised if you don’t like it. But for heaven’s sake don’t mention this in your interviews.
satcfj: 爱丽丝想，就继续说了：“请你告诉我，离开
这里应该走哪条路...
luopu: 最后一句应该是：
但是为了天堂的缘故，请不要在面试的时候提...
上善: 我哥哥现在经常叫我搞什么未来规划，头痛啊！现在每次跟他说不上...
胡言乱语: 呵呵有趣的文章
事情是这样的,前辈中没有规划的人看到有规划...
随风飘飘: 其实人的一生只有一个方向
就是从出生到死亡
像鲁迅先生说...
Guest: 最后一句，查dictionary了么
牛津高阶上写着
f...
Guest: 请问哪里有英文版么？
阿健:2008-04-07 14:17 PM
文章内容有一定的道理，职业规划和人生规划是两码事，我觉得人的一生就是一种经历，不管是快乐还是不快乐，假如你身边的人是快乐的，我想你也会感到快乐的，我认为不要刻意的去给职业定一个位置，其实本来就没有什么具体的职业，只要你觉得在做一件你认为是对的值得做的事情，我觉得这就是职业的含义，其实人生到头来还是一场空啊。
阿健:2008-04-07 14:18 PM
顺其自然吧。
John:2008-04-08 18:19 PM
楼上阿健说的有道理.
小鱼头:2008-04-29 19:49 PM
我现在正在做一个职业生涯规划，一点头绪都没有
真麻烦啊，什么跟什么啊
冰ら天:2008-05-14 15:35 PM
我觉得生存就是屠杀的过程`虽然听起来有点残忍`但生在中国`没办法！
境渊忧蓝:2008-05-18 8:19 AM
这是一篇很不错的文章，以上各位仁者见仁智者见智，不过如果可以给大家一个时时交流的平台就更好了。
唇角余香:2008-05-28 9:32 AM
没有规划是不行的，人活着至少要有两个计划，一个近期目标一个长远目标。而长远目标不是空想，应该要考虑如何实现？可以走哪几步棋？有几个出路？等等。
有目标有计划，才有方向。要不，等你老了的时候，都还不知道这一生我都做了什么？我为什么这么快就度完了这一生？
每个人活着的理由都不一样，但至少，活着要没有遗憾。
我很喜欢跟大家学习这些东西，欢迎加我QQ：44894022 欢迎指导。
草魂:2008-05-30 23:05 PM
希望不会走太多弯路
liuhui:2008-06-04 11:04 AM
范围太广，分析不够
深入
迪达拉:2008-06-13 18:30 PM
呵呵，很不错的文章，经常被问及自己的职业规划时，总是无言，确切的说是不快乐的，有理想，并为之而奋斗，并不一定 要弄一些具体的东西
七面玲珑:2008-06-20 12:56 PM
Roger的翻译很不错，并非一定要按照英文的思路才好，例如FOR GOD’S SAKE，我觉得就本文
这样翻译更容易为大众所接受，毕竟上帝这个说法是含带宗教观念的，某程度上这并非面向大
众。而翻译这方面的细节都是见仁见智
我是一名在校大三学生，目前看来职业规划确实有点过多了
24和36楼确实没有理解文章的意思。规划是需要的，前提是适当的，而且对象是可规划的
我认为“职业选择”其实并非一项可规划项目，相对来说就职后的仕途或工作等发展计划则是
完全可以详细规划的。在目前众多高校的潮流和大众目光看来，校园中的职业规划活动似乎有
些过于泛滥，特别是职业规划大赛等活动为大学生对职业规划或就“规划”这个词上的影响是
比较负面的，毕竟规划并无优劣之分，特别与奖励拉上关系，就有人会为了得奖而去规划，这就更加让人怀疑这样的规划是否还出于它原本的意义。而且，这样规划的优胜者，又会有多少真正去实现他的规划？在这个问题上看来这篇文章很好地警醒了我们，而并非对职业规划持一种完全否定的态度
樱花:2008-06-25 14:35 PM
“根据自己的价值观和特质，我们自己作决定”这名句话不错,职业规划或许不可缺少,但我更习惯怀着好奇的心开心的过每一天.这样或许就能避免“如果我们知道我们的未来，我们都是如此的不快乐。”
yuhuaban:2008-07-07 19:09 PM
人生其实无法规划地,越刻意越无法到达.顺其自然,顺势而为,水到渠成为好.:)
糖醋鱼:2008-07-22 17:36 PM
很经典，要努力面前才是重要的，忘记背后努力面前，一切都不是我能掌握的
帅小伙:2008-07-26 18:35 PM
觉得非常不错.可是没有实际的行动,不知道从何现在,不知道前方在哪里?老师能否指导下
迷糊小新:2008-08-04 11:47 AM
很多时候顺其自然比较好，规划都是一个总体性的预想，其实人应该有自然天成的对自己的认知，会做什么，不愿做什么，能做什么，最后会怎么做，其实都是有规律的。最重要的是，知道自己想要什么就好了。
小胖:2008-09-09 7:52 AM
好文章 虽然读起来有点头疼.但是还是很棒的.
纳吉々:2008-09-25 17:41 PM
这是一篇好文章，不过也只是片面地谈，凡事都有多面性，看事又有多角度，理解又千差万异，价值观更不用说，还有时间的推移，客观场景的演变……我认为分析是非常复杂的。不过，最重要的是掌握技巧。没有绝对。
fafeya:2008-10-08 8:43 AM
要想着未来会怎么样真的是比较麻烦的事情.
可是有时候想着明天要穿什么衣服都会觉得很不快乐,不知道该怎么选择..也还是要想好啊..
阳光:2008-10-12 13:54 PM
最后一段不明白.
大河滔滔:2008-10-15 17:00 PM
如果你要规划的话，最重要的是想清楚你想得到什么，是三个月后得到什么，不是三年后得到什么，太远了往往等于白想，因为我门一般人决心都很小，志向易变。
伊凡:2008-10-18 18:35 PM
昨天看了职业规划大赛，选手一个个非常激动地说着自己的规划，向观众传达一个信息，没有规划，你寸步难行；今天看了“为什么职业规划浪费时间”却真正让我对此作了思考，看来我的烦恼解决了
残缺菩提:2008-10-21 19:58 PM
预则立不预则废，虽然生活有太多不确定，但是人是主动的，没有规划的生活是被生活推着走的生活，想必不是很舒服．不过，这篇文章倒提示了现代人对规划的迷信．
xieix:2008-11-04 16:50 PM
世事变化 人们确实很难能对自己做一个详细的规划
思考回来 规划的意义是什么？ 在哲学上不外乎是实现个人的价值
那么规划的目的不过是实现你的目标罢了
目标 即方向
正如一个小故事
只要你一直向着你所期待的方向走去
而不是紧盯着你的脚对每踏出去的一步保持一个直线
那么你的人生将会在实现你的理想这个路程上画上一条最直 最精确的 属于你自己的轨迹 ⋯⋯
小猫哥:2008-11-12 17:12 PM
以前听一个智者说过
人生就是因为不知道未来是什么样的才活得有意思嘛
人要有点平常心 不能说若干年后我就会是什么什么
而不懂得什么叫活在当下
我觉得生活中真正活在当下的人不多！
凉掌柜:2008-12-18 17:21 PM
我觉得活在当下很难哦！因为我们得为未来奋斗，可是选择什么样的路去奋斗又很难，所以我觉得获得很辛苦，矛盾啊！
边走边想:2008-12-22 13:50 PM
人活着真累啊!
行痴:2008-12-22 19:51 PM
我自己倒是很随性 我想计划做到的是有的放矢吧，随变化确定到底要不要调整计划，要怎么调
米:2009-01-08 10:25 AM
你尽可以规划，但是不要认为这就是在那里等你的人生：）
Jacob:2009-01-16 0:03 AM
我觉得这篇文章有个潜在的假设前提，如果你不同意这个前提，它提供再多的科学研究结果也白搭。这个潜在的假设前提就是——人生最求的终极目标是当前的幸福。从而职业规划是为当前的幸福服务的，无论我们规划与否，当前的幸福是做职业规划的起点。
细看这个前提是有问题的，当前的幸福比较容易把握，然而职业规划似乎为的是未来的幸福。同时，文章中段写到根据自己的兴趣爱好选择职业，走自己的路，但是后续提供的实验，实验考察的确实一个特定的工作或者说是日常生活所必须的一部分琐屑的事情——选择三文治——这显然不能泛化到真实世界的各种工作上去。因为现实工作并不是一个选择吃什么样的三文治的问题，而是怎么做才能吃到更为新鲜更为美味的三文治问题。
总而言之，这文章有些过于“通俗”，把心理学的一些研究结果过分地推广到现实生活遇到的问题上，千万不能较真。要是你不去好好了解自己，让这篇文章作为自己“船到桥头自然直”的支持论据就不好了。
over
或与非:2009-03-30 17:02 PM
过度的规划确实是令人痛苦并且不一定有益的，但不规划将意味着30岁之后有些需要一定积累的领域你可能将无法进入、只能望洋兴叹的。比如技术领域，如果你在30岁之前还没有在某一领域有一定的深度认识的话，可能将面临着是否转行的痛苦抉择。
本文的观点对于功利化的、过于强调社会环境的职业规划是一个很好的参照。现在也有一些人在寻找规划与自我的平衡点，比如古典老师提出的“成长为自己的样子”应该就是这类规划吧。大家可以看看他的新浪博客。
Monica:2010-05-19 14:03 PM
对于现在的我可怕的“不是不知道自己在哪里，而是不知道要去的方向”
职业规划仅仅给了没有目标的人一个缓解自己无措心情的小剂量定心丸，指出了一个大概而又模糊的方向。
未来有太多的不确定性，中国有句谚语“摸着石头过河”，在工作的1年半里，我切实的体悟了这句话在人生或是工作中的意义。
kinka:2010-08-18 17:37 PM
跟着感觉走…
既然无法预测下一步是什么,那么此时的决定你也无法知道是否正确.
难道可以重新选择?重新编译人生?不大可能…
海德:2010-08-29 22:14 PM
不要有太多的规划，“JUST DO IT！”。
boston_free:2010-11-04 16:29 PM
人生不是可以复制的，成功也不是COPY的。经验需要借鉴的，道路是崎岖的。只有撅着屁股往前赶，别人才会落后你。
傻瓜最快乐:2010-11-10 0:38 AM
傻瓜最快乐。：P
563247270:2011-01-29 21:15 PM
嗯 其实这个也要辩证的来看待。至少有一个大概规划能让我们走的更快一些
倾听细雨:2011-07-27 21:26 PM
规划再好失败了就不是好规划，自认为每天做好该做的，准备好明天要做的，人生的规划就是这么简单！
我来说两句